The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes and its associated health problems in a community-dwelling elderly population.

AIMS: Prevalence estimates of Type 2 diabetes and its associated health problems in elderly populations are rare, especially in the very elderly. METHODS: A sample of 15 095 community-dwelling older people aged > or = 75 years were assessed. Type 2 diabetes and associated health problems were identified using self-reporting, general practitioner records, drug histories, and blood and urine measurements. RESULTS: There were 1177 people identified as having Type 2 diabetes mellitus, giving an overall prevalence of 7.8% (95% confidence interval 7.1, 8.5), 9.4% (8.4, 10.5) for men and 6.8% (6.1, 7.6) for women. The age, sex and smoking adjusted odds ratios for various health problems, comparing people with and without diabetes were: low vision 1.6 (1.3, 1.9), proteinuria 1.7 (1.4, 2.1), chronic kidney disease stage 4 or 5 1.5 (1.0, 2.1), angina 1.3 (1.1, 1.6), myocardial infarction 1.5 (1.2, 1.8), cerebrovascular event 2.0 (1.8, 2.1) and foot ulceration 1.7 (1.2, 2.4). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of Type 2 diabetes is not high in community-dwelling older people, but diabetes was a contributory factor to a number of health problems

Prognostic variables and scores identifying the last year of life in COPD: a systematic review protocol

Introduction People living with advanced chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) suffer from significant morbidity, reduced quality of life and high mortality, and are likely to benefit from many aspects of a palliative care approach. Prognostic estimates are a meaningful part of decision-making and better evidence for such estimates would facilitate advance care planning. We aim to provide quality evidence on known prognostic variables and scores which predict a prognosis in COPD of <12 months for use in the community. Methods and analysis We will conduct a systematic review of randomised or quasi-randomised controlled trials, prospective and retrospective longitudinal cohort and case–control studies on prognostic variables, multivariate scores or models for COPD. The search will cover the period up to April 2016. Study selection will follow the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, with data extraction using fields from the Critical Appraisal and Data Extraction for Systematic Reviews of Prediction Modelling Studies (CHARMS) checklist for multivariate models, and study quality will be assessed using a modified version of the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. Ethics and dissemination The results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications and national and international conference presentations

Is birth weight associated with blood pressure among African children and adolescents? A systematic review.

There is substantial evidence of an inverse association between birth weight and later blood pressure (BP) in populations from high-income countries, but whether this applies in low-income countries, where causes of low birth weight are different, is not certain. OBJECTIVE: We conducted a review of the evidence on the relationship between birth weight and BP among African children and adolescents. Medline, EMBASE, Global Health and Web of Science databases were searched for publications to October 2016. Papers reporting the relationship between birth weight and BP among African children and adolescents were assessed. Bibliographies were searched for further relevant publications. Selected papers were summarized following the preferred reporting items for systematic review and meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines. In total, 16 papers from 13 studies conducted in nine African countries (Nigeria, Republic of Seychelles, Gambia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Cameroon, South Africa, Algeria, Zimbabwe and Angola) were reviewed. Eight studies were cohorts, while five were cross-sectional. The relationship between birth weight and later BP varied with age of the participants. Studies in neonates showed a consistently positive association, while predominantly inverse associations were seen among children, and studies in adolescents were inconsistent. Based on the limited number of studies identified, the relationship between birth weight and later BP may vary with age in African children and adolescents. Not all studies adequately controlled for confounding, notably gender or age. Whether the inverse relationship between birth weight and BP in later life observed in Western settings is also seen in Africa remains unclear

Validation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease recording in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD-GOLD)

Objectives: The optimal method of identifying people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) from electronic primary care records is not known. We assessed the accuracy of different approaches using the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, a UK electronic health record database. Setting: 951 participants registered with a CPRD practice in the UK between 1 January 2004 and 31 December 2012. Individuals were selected for ≥1 of 8 algorithms to identify people with COPD. General practitioners were sent a brief questionnaire and additional evidence to support a COPD diagnosis was requested. All information received was reviewed independently by two respiratory physicians whose opinion was taken as the gold standard. Primary outcome measure: The primary measure of accuracy was the positive predictive value (PPV), the proportion of people identified by each algorithm for whom COPD was confirmed. Results: 951 questionnaires were sent and 738 (78%) returned. After quality control, 696 (73.2%) patients were included in the final analysis. All four algorithms including a specific COPD diagnostic code performed well. Using a diagnostic code alone, the PPV was 86.5% (77.5-92.3%) while requiring a diagnosis plus spirometry plus specific medication; the PPV was slightly higher at 89.4% (80.7-94.5%) but reduced case numbers by 10%. Algorithms without specific diagnostic codes had low PPVs (range 12.2-44.4%). Conclusions: Patients with COPD can be accurately identified from UK primary care records using specific diagnostic codes. Requiring spirometry or COPD medications only marginally improved accuracy. The high accuracy applies since the introduction of an incentivised disease register for COPD as part of Quality and Outcomes Framework in 2004

Trajectories of body mass index and waist circumference in four Peruvian settings at different level of urbanisation: the CRONICAS Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Studies have reported the incidence/risk of becoming obese, but few have described the trajectories of body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) over time, especially in low/middle-income countries. We assessed the trajectories of BMI and WC according to sex in four sites in Peru. METHODS: Data from the population-based CRONICAS Cohort Study were analysed. We fitted a population-averaged model by using generalised estimating equations. The outcomes of interest, with three data points over time, were BMI and WC. The exposure variable was the factorial interaction between time and study site. RESULTS: At baseline mean age was 55.7 years (SD: 12.7) and 51.6% were women. Mean follow-up time was 2.5 years (SD: 0.4). Over time and across sites, BMI and WC increased linearly. The less urbanised sites showed a faster increase than more urbanised sites, and this was also observed after sex stratification. Overall, the fastest increase was found for WC compared with BMI. Compared with Lima, the fastest increase in WC was in rural Puno (coefficient=0.73, P<0.001), followed by urban Puno (coefficient=0.59, P=0.001) and Tumbes (coefficient=0.22, P=0.088). CONCLUSIONS: There was a linear increase in BMI and WC across study sites, with the greatest increase in less urbanised areas. The ongoing urbanisation process, common to Peru and other low/middle-income countries, is accompanied by different trajectories of increasing obesity-related markers

Ethnic differences in the severity and clinical management of type 2 diabetes at time of diagnosis. A cohort study in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink

Aims: To characterize ethnic differences in the severity and clinical management of type 2 diabetes at initial diagnosis. Methods: An observational cohort study of 179,886 people with incident type 2 diabetes between 2004 and 2017 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink was undertaken; 63.4% of the cohort were of white ethnicity, 3.9% south Asian, and 1.6% black. Ethnic differences in clinical profile at diagnosis, consultation rates, and risk factor recording were derived from linear and logistic regression. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to determine ethnic differences in time to initiation of therapeutic and non-therapeutic management following diagnosis. All analyses adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, and clustering by practice. Results: In the 12 months prior to diagnosis, non-white groups had fewer consultations compared to white groups, but risk factor recording was better than or equivalent to white groups for 9/10 risk factors for south Asian groups and 8/10 risk factors for black groups (p &lt; 0.002). Blood pressure, BMI, cholesterol, eGFR, and CVD risk levels were more favourable in non-white groups, and prevalence of macrovascular disease was significantly lower (p &lt; 0.003). Time to initiation of antidiabetic treatment and first risk assessment was faster in non-white groups relative to white groups, while time to risk factor measurement and diabetes review was slower. Conclusions: We find limited evidence of systematic ethnic inequalities around the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Ethnic disparities in downstream consequences may relate to genetic risk factors, or manifest later in the care pathway, potentially in relation to longterm risk factor control

Ethnic differences in the severity and clinical management of type 2 diabetes at time of diagnosis: A cohort study in the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink.

AIMS: To characterize ethnic differences in the severity and clinical management of type 2 diabetes at initial diagnosis. METHODS: An observational cohort study of 179,886 people with incident type 2 diabetes between 2004 and 2017 in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink was undertaken; 63.4% of the cohort were of white ethnicity, 3.9% south Asian, and 1.6% black. Ethnic differences in clinical profile at diagnosis, consultation rates, and risk factor recording were derived from linear and logistic regression. Cox-proportional hazards regression was used to determine ethnic differences in time to initiation of therapeutic and non-therapeutic management following diagnosis. All analyses adjusted for age, sex, deprivation, and clustering by practice. RESULTS: In the 12 months prior to diagnosis, non-white groups had fewer consultations compared to white groups, but risk factor recording was better than or equivalent to white groups for 9/10 risk factors for south Asian groups and 8/10 risk factors for black groups (p < 0.002). Blood pressure, BMI, cholesterol, eGFR, and CVD risk levels were more favourable in non-white groups, and prevalence of macrovascular disease was significantly lower (p < 0.003). Time to initiation of antidiabetic treatment and first risk assessment was faster in non-white groups relative to white groups, while time to risk factor measurement and diabetes review was slower. CONCLUSIONS: We find limited evidence of systematic ethnic inequalities around the time of type 2 diabetes diagnosis. Ethnic disparities in downstream consequences may relate to genetic risk factors, or manifest later in the care pathway, potentially in relation to long-term risk factor control.RM is supported by a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship from the Wellcome Trust (201375/Z/16/Z)

Bariatric Surgery in the United Kingdom: A Cohort Study of Weight Loss and Clinical Outcomes in Routine Clinical Care.

BACKGROUND: Bariatric surgery is becoming a more widespread treatment for obesity. Comprehensive evidence of the long-term effects of contemporary surgery on a broad range of clinical outcomes in large populations treated in routine clinical practice is lacking. The objective of this study was to measure the association between bariatric surgery, weight, body mass index, and obesity-related co-morbidities. METHODS AND FINDINGS: This was an observational retrospective cohort study using data from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink. All 3,882 patients registered in the database and with bariatric surgery on or before 31 December 2014 were included and matched by propensity score to 3,882 obese patients without surgery. The main outcome measures were change in weight and body mass index over 4 y; incident diagnoses of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), hypertension, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, fractures, obstructive sleep apnoea, and cancer; mortality; and resolution of hypertension and T2DM. Weight measures were available for 3,847 patients between 1 and 4 mo, 2,884 patients between 5 and 12 mo, and 2,258 patients between 13 and 48 mo post-procedure. Bariatric surgery patients exhibited rapid weight loss for the first four postoperative months, at a rate of 4.98 kg/mo (95% CI 4.88-5.08). Slower weight loss was sustained to the end of 4 y. Gastric bypass (6.56 kg/mo) and sleeve gastrectomy (6.29 kg/mo) were associated with greater initial weight reduction than gastric banding (2.77 kg/mo). Protective hazard ratios (HRs) were detected for bariatric surgery for incident T2DM, 0.68 (95% CI 0.55-0.83); hypertension, 0.35 (95% CI 0.27-0.45); angina, 0.59 (95% CI 0.40-0.87);MI, 0.28 (95% CI 0.10-0.74); and obstructive sleep apnoea, 0.55 (95% CI 0.40-0.87). Strong associations were found between bariatric surgery and the resolution of T2DM, with a HR of 9.29 (95% CI 6.84-12.62), and between bariatric surgery and the resolution of hypertension, with a HR of 5.64 (95% CI 2.65-11.99). No association was detected between bariatric surgery and fractures, cancer, or stroke. Effect estimates for mortality found no protective association with bariatric surgery overall, with a HR of 0.97 (95% CI 0.66-1.43). The data used were recorded for the management of patients in primary care and may be subject to inaccuracy, which would tend to lead to underestimates of true relative effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery as delivered in the UK healthcare system is associated with dramatic weight loss, sustained at least 4 y after surgery. This weight loss is accompanied by substantial improvements in pre-existing T2DM and hypertension, as well as a reduced risk of incident T2DM, hypertension, angina, MI, and obstructive sleep apnoea. Widening the availability of bariatric surgery could lead to substantial health benefits for many people who are morbidly obese

Risk of stroke following herpes zoster: a self-controlled case-series study.

BACKGROUND: Herpes zoster is common and vaccine preventable. Stroke risk may be increased following zoster, but evidence is sparse and could be explained by differences between people with and without zoster. Our objective was to determine if stroke risk is increased following zoster. METHODS: Within-person comparisons were undertaken using the self-controlled case-series method and data from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink (1987-2012). Participants had a first-ever diagnosis of zoster and stroke within the study period. Stroke incidence in periods following zoster was compared with incidence in other time periods. Age-adjusted incidence ratios (IRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 6584 individuals were included. Stroke rate was increased following zoster compared with the baseline unexposed period, then gradually reduced over 6 months: weeks 1-4 (age-adjusted IR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.32-2.02), weeks 5-12 (IR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.21-1.68), and weeks 13-26 (IR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.07-1.42), with no increase thereafter. A stronger effect was observed for individuals with zoster ophthalmicus, rising to a >3-fold rate 5-12 weeks after zoster. Oral antivirals were given to 55% of individuals: IRs for stroke were lower among those receiving antivirals compared with those not treated, suggesting a protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: We have established an increased stroke rate within 6 months following zoster. Findings have implications for zoster vaccination programs, which may reduce stroke risk following zoster. The low antiviral prescribing rate needs to be improved; our data suggest that antiviral therapy may lead to a reduced stroke risk following zoster

Congenital Anomalies in Children of Mothers Taking Antiepileptic Drugs with and without Periconceptional High Dose Folic Acid Use: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Antenatal antiepileptic drug (AED) use has been found to be associated with increased major congenital anomaly (CA) risks. However whether such AED-associated risks were different according to periconceptional high dose (5mg daily) folic acid supplementation is still unclear. METHODS: We included 258,591 singleton live-born children of mothers aged 15-44 years in 1990-2013 from The Health Improvement Network, a large UK primary care database. We identified all major CAs according to the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies classification. Absolute risks and adjusted odds ratios (aOR) were calculated comparing children of mothers prescribed AEDs to those without such prescriptions, stratified by folic acid prescriptions around the time of conception (one month before conception to two months post-conception). RESULTS: CA risk was 476/10,000 in children of mothers with first trimester AEDs compared with 269/10,000 in those without AEDs equating to an aOR of 1.82, 95% confidence interval 1.30-2.56. The highest system-specific risks were for heart anomalies (198/10,000 and 79/10,000 respectively, aOR 2.49,1.47-4.21). Sodium valproate and lamotrigine were both associated with increased risks of any CA (aOR 2.63,1.46-4.74 and aOR 2.01,1.12-3.59 respectively) and system-specific risks. Stratification by folic acid supplementation did not show marked reductions in AED-associated risks (e.g. for CAs overall aOR 1.75, 1.01-3.03 in the high dose folic acid group and 1.94, 95%CI 1.21-3.13 in the low dose or no folic acid group); however, the majority of mothers taking AEDs only initiated high dose folic acid from the second month of pregnancy. CONCLUSIONS: Children of mothers with AEDs in the first trimester of pregnancy have a 2-fold increased risk of major CA compared to those unexposed. We found no evidence that prescribed high dose folic acid supplementation reduced such AED-associated risks. Although statistical power was limited, prescribing of folic acid too late for it to be effective during the organogenic period or selective prescribing to those with more severe morbidity may explain these findings